Whither comes the weather?
It’s entirely possible that you might live somewhere far, far from the Pacific Ocean and not be aware that there are weather forces in the far reaches of the world that are impacting your life. But there are. Examples would include:
- A lack of [link url=”https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/major-hurricane-us-landfall-drought-study” title=”major hurricanes striking the U.S. for the past nine years“].
- Severe drought [link url=”http://ca.water.usgs.gov/data/drought/” title=”throughout California and the U.S. Southwest“].
- Extreme wildland fires [link url=”http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36212145″ title=”many thousands of miles away“].
And there are more examples. Many more.
Forcing events
“Forcing” is a cool term I learned from [link url=”https://weather.com/” title=”the Weather Channel“]. Essentially, it is described as any condition or event that influences a system in some way that cannot be averted. For example, when cold dry air from the Rockies meets warm moist air from the Gulf, this is a Forcing Event that creates thunderstorms and tornadoes. It’s inevitable; it cannot be stopped, [link url=”https://amuedge.com/education/the-phases-of-edm-a-primer/” title=”or even mitigated; and our only options are to prepare, respond, recover, and adapt“].
There are two basic forcing events or conditions that are being discussed here:
- [link url=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o” title=”El Nino“], which ended [link url=”https://www.climate.gov/enso” title=”last month“].
- and [link url=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a” title=”La Nina“], which appears to be in position to take over the [link url=”https://weather.com/news/climate/news/el-nino-noaa-february-2016-update” title=”influencing of weather patterns for this year“], including predictable events as far away as [link url=”https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/30/july-outlook-as-la-nina-builds-the-temperatures-in-d-c-could-soar/” title=”Washington DC“].
Lessons to be Learned
We’ve discussed El Nino and its impacts [link url=”https://amuedge.com/comes-the-el-nino/” title=”before,”] but we haven’t had a La Nina during the life of EDM Digest, so we’re essentially in uncharted territory.
The bottom line message here is: LEARN! Be aware. Attribute cause and effect correctly. Look into the future to be able to protect your served public.
One of our favorite national pastimes is to make predictions. Predictions are entertaining. Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee for president? Makes perfect sense. Donald Trump as the actual nominee? Who would have thought? The world will end on December 21, 2012? How did that work out?
No one was ever held truly accountable for the inaccuracies of those predictions. And, probably, no one should have been. So in the spirit of prediction-without-accountability (which you can interpret however you wish): when the La Nina takes hold, I will offer the following:
- There will fewer wildland fires
- Droughts will be lessened
- Hurricanes will be more numerous
- Tornado frequency will be unchanged (because tornadoes don’t care)
… and I leave it to you, dear reader, to do two things:
- I challenge you to construct your own predictions and compare them to mine
- I challenge you to come back some time next year and point out how correct or incorrect I was.
Challenge accepted?
[relink url=”https://amuedge.com/comes-the-el-nino/” url2=”https://amuedge.com/thank-you-weather-channel/”]
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