Report: Science can now estimate effects of climate change on events
Figuring out the influence of climate change on extreme weather events is no longer guesswork but rather science, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in a new report.
According to the report, rapid advancements made in the field of extreme event attribution allows scientists to now better understand the influence of human-caused climate change on both single weather events and groups of related weather events.
“An increasingly common question after an extreme weather event is whether climate change ‘caused’ that event to occur. While that question remains difficult to answer given all the factors that affect an individual weather event, we can now say more about how climate change has affected the intensity or likelihood of some events.” — David W. Titley, founding director of the Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk at the Pennsylvania State University.
Drought, heat waves and torrential rain
Extreme weather events like drought, heat waves and severe rainstorms can all now be examined with a lens on whether or not any human-caused elements factored into the severity of the events.
Scientists utilize historical comparisons and advanced climate and weather models, among other tools, to compare the conditions of a recent real-world weather event in simulated worlds both with and without human-caused climate changes.
More research needed
The report stresses that, while advancements have certainly been made, more research and testing will need to be conducted to better understand and predict the possible impacts of climate change on shorter duration but extreme weather events like hurricanes and severe thunderstorms.
New report on attribution of #ExtremeWeather in the context of climate change availble now: https://t.co/6yFRNVBKQw pic.twitter.com/jbWGuuwi50
— National Academies (@theNASEM) March 11, 2016
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