AMU Emergency Management Opinion Public Safety

Avoiding Civil War–Our Choice

American Civil War II. Wait. What?

We have distinct perceptions of what constitutes civil war, based on our history. One side wears grey. The other side wears blue. We’re very clear on who is ‘us’ and who is ‘them.’ We’re very clear that ‘we’ are right and ‘they’ are wrong. In fact, ‘they’ are so wrong that we’re justified in killing ‘them.’

These are neat and clean distinctions, right? They served us well in [link url=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War” title=”justifying the killing of 750,000 of our own citizens”].

But civil wars since have never been so tidy with respect to ‘us’ vs. ‘them.’ Often the combatants don’t know who ‘them’ is. Sometimes, they don’t even know who ‘us’ is. The best example right now is the [link url=”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War” title=”Syrian civil war”]. In Syria, there are a minimum of five and probably as many as 10 to 15 factions trying to resolve the issue of ‘us’ vs. ‘them’ and attempting to enforce their political will.

The scary part in this is that if you discard the traditional notion of civil war that we learned from the American experience,  then the interpretation of our country’s current condition might be that we’re approaching the more modern definition of what a civil war is and how it presents itself.

The Experts Weigh In

The operative questions here appear to be these: How does one even recognize a civil war when they see it? How does one who is about to be embroiled in a civil war recognize the signs?

So I found it interesting that a friend [link url=”http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-2403-6-reasons-why-new-civil-war-possible-terrifying.html” title=”sent me this article and asked me what I thought”]. Well, my first thought was that the level of expertise sourced for the article was pretty impressive. My second thought was that we may be in more trouble than we think.

Here is an overview of the six various expert opinions:

  • Survey data–respond to this statement: ‘Most people can be trusted.’ To the extent that society feels that people can be trusted, civil war is unlikely. When that trust erodes, then the risk increases. This is particularly true with respect to the police. If any agency must retain trust, it is the police. We’ve documented many times police shootings of unarmed individuals and assassinations of police officers. See the conflict?
  • Violence could begin with the collapse of farming. The statement: ‘an army travels on its stomach’ is an example. If society is not fed, then society revolts. Another witticism is this: ‘any society is 72 hours from open revolt if food runs out.’ So what happens in a civil war is that the farms stop supplying the urban centers, and when that happens, all hell breaks loose. Applicability to us: rural areas tend to be conservative and urban areas progressive. See the conflict?
  • We have plenty of expert tactical knowledge of insurgent methods. Anyone think the recent attempt to place truck bombs in Garden City Kansas doesn’t mirror the truck bombs of Oklahoma City, Beirut, and Khobar Towers? Any individual non-state actor has documented knowledge of how to build low-tech bombs that are extremely effective. See the issue?
  • There won’t be any definable ‘us’ vs. ‘them’ sides that can be defined. As the article notes, one Iraqi veteran noted that at one point, there were 170 known groups fighting against them. Although it’s true that many of the groups were also fighting each other, that doesn’t really help. In our own country, we have more than 700 hate groups that might be willing to take up arms, and more than 10 defined guerrilla movements that are actively preparing to pounce if the time seems right. See the issue?
  • We have trained a generation of military soldiers that know how to use all of these tactics and strategies. Have they all been satisfied with how they’ve been treated since they returned home? Is there any guarantee that every single veteran will avoid joining hate groups & guerrilla movements? That would be a statistical impossibility. See the issue?
  • One thing that actually prevented wars from being bloodier in the past was the lack of communication. Now, that’s gone away. As easy as it is to arrange a flash mob, it’s that easy to arrange a flash attack. With respect to insurgent military tactics, the internet has made things MUCH worse. See the issue?

Read the [link url=”http://www.cracked.com/personal-experiences-2403-6-reasons-why-new-civil-war-possible-terrifying.html” title=”full article”] for more details. Also check out the various references and books. It’s a critical issue worth the effort.

So if we were to enter a civil war, how would it play out?

That’s the question, isn’t it? Well, probably if these events happened, we could conclude that we were in grave danger:

  • A significant faction of the population refuses to accept the results of this year’s election.
  • Events such as the occupation of the Malheur federal lands and similar become more widespread.
  • Police shooting of unarmed citizens rise. Shootings of police officers rise.
  • State and federal government agencies overreact by sending national guard troops to quell peaceful protests.
  • One or more domestic terrorist attacks such as that planned for Garden City Kansas actually happen.
  • The media continues to prioritize ratings over society by undermining the perspectives and workings of opposing political views.
  • Our American society itself–the average, honorable citizen, en mass–does not rise up to oppose these divisive circumstances.

So if we went over the edge and embroiled ourselves in a civil war, how could we end it?

I have no freaking idea. Nobody does. But notably, civil wars have these common characteristics:

  • Thousands to hundreds of thousands of innocent deaths.
  • Protracted conflict that goes on for decades.
  • No clear and decisive winner.
  • A society that’s fraught with strife for the rest of its existence–or at a minimum, for three or four generations.

So the question is the same as it always is: Is this what we want for our children & grandchildren? If not, then for the sake of all that’s holy and honorable: STOP IT!!

Learn more:

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