As new reports of 2016’s prospects for drought in California begin coming out:
[relink url= “https://amuedge.com/new-drought-fears-surface-in-california/”]
It’s going to be important to recognize [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causality” title= “causality.”] Or if you will, downstream consequences. Or, from [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory” title= “Chaos Theory,“] what is commonly known as the [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect” title= “Butterfly Effect.”] This is one of our great weaknesses: We don’t recognize cause-and-effect relationships with any accuracy whatsoever.
An example would be the statement: ‘I just shot myself in the foot. It hurts. So I’m going to keep shooting myself in the foot until it stops hurting.’ This seriously awful process of misapplying logic is far more prevalent than we might think. We have to look no further than our current political process for evidence.
However, we usually CAN recognize first-generation effects. For example, if we say: ‘There will be less water in California this year, so less fruit will be produced,’ then we can usually follow that. However, if we get to second-generation effects, such as: ‘There will be less water in California this year, so less fruit will be produced, so fruit prices will be higher’–that’s where we tend to lose the connection. Now, follow this one:
‘There will be less water in California this year, so less fruit will be produced, so employment opportunity for people who usually work in the fields will be lower, so many will choose to return to school, which will require schools to have more resources to accommodate the need.’
Is that an accurate cause-and effect web? Fair question. I don’t know. What I DO know is that we should not consider Butterfly Effect outcomes like this to be outside the realm of possibilities. What I also know is that when a Butterfly Effect result strikes, it often overwhelms resources–think: the current migration of refugees from the Middle East into Europe. That could have been forecast when we first began understanding the impacts of climate change and groundwater depletion due to overuse–but we didn’t. Some would argue that there is no cause-and-effect (the deniers) and others would argue that the knowledge was unknowable (the willingly blind). Others saw it coming, but their analysis fell on deaf ears (the [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra” title= “Cassandras“]). In any case, we totally blew it when we projected what would be happening this year in Europe.
So what’s my point? My point is that we have a sterling opportunity to totally blow it when we approach the task of accommodating what will become yet another serious drought this year in California–and throughout the West, for that matter. For your consideration as public servants and emergency managers, here’s a partial list of second-and-further possible downstream effects, compiled through the lens of my limited awareness of the situation and limited vision:
- More cities will run out of water, similar to East Porterville
- Land will continue to slump, threatening communities behind dams and levees
- Salinization will continue to encroach through the East Bay into the surrounding communities
- Widespread culling of fruit trees and livestock will be necessary to accommodate the new water availability normal
- There will continue to be mass immigration INTO California, since California will continue to be perceived as being better than where the refugees are coming from
- Your state government will be sympathetic, yet largely powerless
- Your federal government will remain deadlocked and not care, unless presidential delegates are at stake
- There will be a [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory” title= “Black Swan Event“] that will divert attention from critical issues just when they need the most attention
This is clearly a list that, even if it passes muster as being probable, is beyond the capability of any individual citizen to solve. So don’t try to fix it all, and don’t try to fix anything alone. However, DO recognize that in your capacity as officials dedicated to protecting the public and our way of life, that you DO have both a mission and a capability–so DO go fix something. Working together, we may still make this come out right.
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