How erratic is climate change?
Climate change, by its nature, is a confusing and contradictory concept.
It can, depending on the circumstance:
— Intensify extreme weather or make it less common.
— Increase rainfall and snowfall or decrease rainfall and snowfall.
— Increase flooding or decrease flooding.
— Destroy economic opportunity or increase it.
— Damage wine production or enhance it (yes, this one is personal).
The inconsistencies
The point here is that the impacts of climate change are not uniform across the globe, and that it requires a near micro-analysis to determine the impact of climate change right where you live.
That’s unfortunate, because if any particular individual is trying to understand the impact on him/her personally, it becomes a really complicated question. Also, it’s unfortunate because deniers can and have used cold weather as ammunition to make their case, and as it turns out, that’s completely irrelevant.
The consistencies
Amongst all this chaos, there remain a number of climate change impacts that are NOT in question.
These include:
— Sea levels are rising and will continue to rise unabated.
— Fossil groundwater will continue to suffer from unsustainable overuse, resulting in depletion.
— Ocean acidification will continue to damage coral and other ocean ecosystems.
— Glaciers will continue to deplete, ice shelves in Antarctica will continue to disintegrate, polar ice will continue to diminish, and Greenland ice will continue to collapse and flow into the Atlantic.
These are known impacts. They are happening and they are going to continue to happen, with little to nothing we can do about it.
Forecasting
So it’s useful, but still frightening, that occasionally a forecast can be made about something as variable as long-term weather. Such is the case with mega-drought, where [link url=”http://www.ecowatch.com/megadroughts-2031955357.html” title=”NASA calculated”] that there is a 99 percent certainty that a mega-drought will impact the American Southwest this century. The data and arguments can help you as a public servant to protect your served population or as a citizen to protect your family.
This is not new news to many. Cities and towns from eastern California to western Texas are already running out of water. Farms that depend on seasonal rainfall are already failing all across the region. The ‘new news’ is that it’s now possible to calculate with 99 percent certainty that this issue is not over.
Rather, it’s only just beginning.
You’re Next
So, if you live in the American Southwest and can look at your neighbor — or someone in the next county, or someone in the next state — who’s currently suffering from the impacts of this ongoing and increasing drought, and you’re tempted to think that you dodged a bullet … you didn’t. Your bullet is still on the way. And for the sake of your families, you need to be planning now for the arrival of that bullet. It will get here.
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