If history tells us anything, it’s that we’re optimists. Humankind always envisions a rosy future. We endure ages of suffering, war, and early death so that we can benefit from ages of enlightenment and prosperity. And we’ve become better at enduring the ages of suffering. The [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death” title= “Black Death in the 1300s“] killed as many as 200 million people. The [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic” title= “Spanish Flu of 1918“] killed as many as 100 million. The [link url= “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HIV/AIDS_cases_and_deaths_registered_by_region” title= “AIDS epidemic that began in 1981“] killed as many as 39 million.
One thing that’s important to note from these examples is that as the death rate declines in absolute terms, it also declines in relative terms as a percentage of the population. In other words, the Black Death not only killed more people, it also killed a much higher percentage of the population than did the AIDS virus, because the AIDS virus infected a much larger population, and once life-saving treatments were found, the death rate plunged dramatically.
Pandemics are an interesting phenomenon. They have appeared at pretty much regular intervals throughout human history. They have come at human civilization from the flank–that is, any time a pandemic has appeared, it was in no way expected, and it tended to appear when society was feeling good about itself and was on the verge of achieving what the people of the time would have considered ‘utopia’ from their perspective.
Zika fits the profile. There are [link url= “http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/20/wars-john-gray-conflict-peace” title= “fewer wars among humans“] than at any time in recorded history. Poverty, although still an issue, is [link url= “http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/20/wars-john-gray-conflict-peace” title= “also at an all-time low.“] Health services have increased [link url= “http://ourworldindata.org/data/population-growth-vital-statistics/life-expectancy/” title= “human life expectancy“] geometrically from just a short century ago. Expectations of a human population of billions upon billions are now likely.
SO: enter the pandemic. The pandemic appears to be nature’s way of constraining the population so that it continues to function within the parameters of the earth’s resources. As we have made remarkable progress against the pandemics that nature has thrown at us before, we will likely make similar progress against this one. We’re good at that.
But in doing so, we need to also understand the purpose of the pandemic and adapt to what it’s trying to tell us. These messages might include:
- The resources of the earth are not unlimited
- The population of the earth cannot rise unconstrained
- Society, while protecting its people from unneeded suffering, also needs to recognize the bigger picture.
Otherwise, this Zika pandemic is likely to be bad. Really bad. Yes, I understand that this presentation of the issues is kind of ‘out there’–but at the local level, while you as EDM professionals go about your business of protecting the public from a nasty virus, you can also consider that this event might be a gateway to other issues that involve community planning, renewable resource utilization, improvement of community health provision, and similar–and so this entire issue could serve as an opportunity to educate you as well as your served public.
This issue is worth the attention you focus on it. Hopefully, this presentation has enabled you to view the issue in a more comprehensive way. If you live in the south, and as this threat migrates north, everyone reading this will need to come to terms with how to respond. Be well, stay safe, and honorably serve the public that depends on you.
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