Feedback loops: how a butterfly becomes a hurricane
We’ve discussed feedback loops before–see the ‘learn more’ section below. Essentially, the idea is that a small input to a system causes a small response by the system, which creates a bigger input to the system, which causes a bigger response from the system, which …
You get the idea.
Probably the best example is that of arctic sea ice loss. The feedback loop works like this:
- Arctic sea ice reflects a significant amount of solar energy back into space
- Global warming reduces the amount of sea ice
- The reduced amount of sea ice reflects less energy
- The reduced energy reflection creates more warming and more ice loss
- More ice loss creates more warming
- More warming creates more ice loss
- …
- Eventually: No sea ice; runaway warming underway
A new concern
Although this example is pretty impactful and scary, it’s by no means the only one. [link url=”[link url=”http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-29/global-warming-reduces-earth-co2-absorption-arctic-study/7673032″ title=”This recent study”] illustrates another truth: That every degree Celsius of warming disables the earth’s ability to absorb and recycle carbon dioxide by 20 parts per million (ppm).
Admittedly, it’s difficult for us to get excited about anything measured in parts per million. However, this particular measurement is extremely important when it comes to discussing global warming. A [link url=”http://350.org/about/science/” title=”significant scientific consensus”] is forming around the theory that the only way to avoid runaway warming is to maintain an atmospheric concentration of 350ppm. We’re currently at 400ppm.
So if we follow cause and effect and trace the impacts, the facts are these:
- The earth is now conservatively estimated to be .85C degrees warmer than before the industrial revolution. Certain sensitive areas such as the arctic are 6 to 8 degrees higher.
- This means–again, conservatively–that the concentration of CO2 would be 16ppm lower than current levels if all other conditions were equal. In the arctic, assuming a 6 degree rise, the arctic has lost the ability to absorb 120ppm–which, if it hadn’t happened, would bring the concentration back to the safe level.
So once again, we have choices. We can continue to consider CO2 concentration and the current global warming trend to be unique features of nature that we have nothing to do with, and no control over–or we can accept responsibility for what we’ve done, chart a new course, and make it happen. Our children and grandchildren would prefer that we select one of these courses over the other.
Learn more:
[relink url=”http://edmdigest.com/adaptation/climate-change-in-metaphor/” url2=”https://amuedge.com/going-it-alone-on-climate/” url3=”https://amuedge.com/climate-in-case-youre-not-convinced-yet/”]
[relink url=”https://amuedge.com/butterflies-and-black-swans/” url2=”https://amuedge.com/study-thawing-permafrost-could-worsen-global-warming/” url3=”http://edmdigest.com/adaptation/positive-feedback-loops-how-todays-candle-becomes-tomorrows-inferno/”]
[relink url=”https://amuedge.com/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-record-low/” url2=”https://amuedge.com/decreasing-arctic-ice-contributing-to-greenland-ice-sheet-melting/” url3=”https://amuedge.com/turning-the-pages-on-arctic-ice/”]
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