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Coffee: Another Global Warming Disaster in the Making

What Global Warming?

One of the ongoing issues with convincing some folks that global warming is happening is the “show me” requirement. The rate of warming has accelerated over the past few years, and there are examples everywhere that demonstrate the impacts in significant ways. But those impacts to date have either been detached to a degree (witness crop loss, drought, wildland fires), happened in the far reaches of the Earth (witness summer arctic ice loss, Siberian tundra failure, Antarctic ice shelf collapse), or have happened only to a small number of people (witness the [link url=”https://amuedge.com/alaska-village-shishmaref-to-relocate/” title=”relocating of Shishmaref, AK”]).

So, to some people, the “why is this important to me?” question remains unanswered.

What Price Coffee?

Recently, we have been introduced to the idea that all is not well in formerly blissful coffee-land. To set the stage, we humans drink more than two billion cups of coffee every day.

Estimates are coming out that [link url=”https://thinkprogress.org/climate-change-is-putting-your-coffee-at-risk-2378cd284c8d#.nm8w6oi9g” title=”global warming may reduce the land area that can produce coffee”] by as much as 50 percent in the next 30 years. Some say that wild coffee itself may become extinct within the next half-century.

Reasons for this are many, including drought, better habitat for insect pests, disease, and heat waves. As global warming creates better habitat for diseases such as [link url=”https://amuedge.com/what-we-know-about-zika-virus-late-august-update/” title=”Zika”] that impact humans, so will it create better conditions for diseases that impact plants.

To those that directly or indirectly depend on coffee for their livelihood, the [link url=”https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/29/climate-change-predicted-to-halve-coffee-growing-area-that-supports-120m-people” title=”news isn’t good, either”]. As many as 120 million people worldwide directly draw their economic survival from coffee, and that could disappear.

From the investment side, coffee futures have been rising lately. Why? Because a scarce commodity demands a higher price, and coffee is recognized by those that traffic in futures as a growingly scarce commodity. The problem with this is that once coffee becomes critically scarce, the market will likely collapse, so this is probably only a bubble. Bubbles are great if you’re riding them while they rise, and disastrous when they pop.

Alternatives?

What more horrible thought could there be than the notion that you might have to find an alternative to your morning cup of coffee? Nonetheless, here are some possibilities:

  • Water: No, seriously. Water is the most consumed drink in the world. Can it replace coffee? Go ahead and shudder at the thought.
  • Tea: The second most common drink, even more popular than coffee, [link url=”http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-changes-the-future-for-tea-leaves/” title=”tea production is under stress as well”]. Whither goes coffee, probably goes tea.
  • Soda: Well, that’s a mixed signal. On the one hand, soda production is [link url=”http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2014/06/corn-syrup-climate-impacts” title=”impacted by the availability of corn syrup”], which is likely to decline. On the other hand, the fizz in your soda is carbon dioxide, which your body processes into various things less harmful–so you could consider that your contribution.
  • Bourbon: Perhaps the most resilient. While it’s true that the production of bourbon will be impacted by corn production, outside of that, [link url=”http://brooksgrain.com/climate-impact-bourbon-production/” title=”the only global warming impact appears to be that the aging process”] might require an enhanced cooling environment to maintain its integrity.

The Best Alternative

The best alternative, of course, is that we as a society take global warming seriously, convert our energy production to wind, tide, solar, etc., and reduce the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere below 350 ppm. That would be the one, and probably the only one, of the choices that would preserve our morning shot of energy and keep from destroying the livelihoods of millions of people.

Since I’m not confident that we will ever do that, you can find me enjoying my morning bourbon. Doing my part!

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