By William Tucker
Contributor, In Homeland Security
At times, nation-states can find themselves faced with impossible choices. Two nations, Iraq and South Korea, face immediate and similar challenges that they simply cannot handle on their own.
In Iraq, sectarian issues have become a constant challenge. With the Iraqi Kurdistan region agitating for independence and pressuring a weak central government, Baghdad must turn to other powers to maintain its territorial integrity. Currently, Iran and the U.S. have influence in Iraq and both have supported Baghdad’s desire for unity.
Iraq’s Shia-Led Government Could Face Another Sunni Insurgency in the Future
Both Iran and the U.S. have differing interests that affect their current positions in Iraq. So Iraq cannot view the motives of Washington or Tehran as solely altruistic.
Iraq’s Sunni Arab question cannot be ignored, either. With Iran having significant influence with the Shia-led government, there is always the possibility that Iraq will face another Sunni insurgency once the Islamic State is finally displaced.
South Korea Also Battling for Its Survival between a Nuclear Neighbor and a Global Power
South Korea, however, is not facing a crisis of national unity. This peninsular nation is wedged between a neighbor, North Korea, that has changed the dynamic of a long-running conflict and a global power, the U.S., which is now directly threatened by this change.
North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is nothing new, but numerous incidents since the signing of the cease-fire in 1953 nearly reignited war between the two Koreas. The U.S. has played a peacekeeper role on the peninsula since the Korean War. But it is only recently that North Korea has reached a point where Kim Yong Un’s regime can threaten the U.S. mainland with nuclear missiles.
US Could Be Forced to Exchange Protecting South Korea for Protecting the West Coast
Although the North’s threat of a nuclear missile attack on the United States has yet to be realized, the threat is real enough that the U.S. could be forced to exchange protecting Seoul for protecting San Francisco. If the U.S. does choose some form of military action to destroy North Korea’s nuclear capability or attempt to usher in regime change, South Korea will become a battleground.
Seoul would be forced to choose among three options: remain allied with the U.S., attempt neutrality or make a deal with Pyongyang. None of these options bodes well for South Korea, since each of these options is not guaranteed to spare South Korea from any potential military action.
South Korea and Iraq have different problems specifically, but in general, they both face the issue of survival. That is not to say, however, that an existential crisis exists at the moment. Any number of events can occur to shape these nations’ situations in a less dire way, but Iraq and South Korea will have difficult choices to make in the coming year.
Social Theory of ‘Caging’ Plays Out Now in Baghdad and Seoul
To help illustrate the point of being forced to choose from a list of terrible choices, the social theory of “caging” can be instructive. In 1986, social scientist Michael Mann posited the theory of caging – how people trapped in a dire situation are forced to build societies that are larger and more organized.
There are numerous ways caging can play out, but it can involve one population group absorbing another population group to deal with profound change. For instance, when a group of people faces an invasion from a much larger adversary, they can either submit to the invader or ally with another force to even the battlefield. However, when a small player is trapped between a larger ally and a larger foe, the new alliance can result in domination by the stronger ally over its weaker partner.
This is the situation in which Iraq and South Korea currently find themselves. Portions of Iraq are not politically loyal to Baghdad; instead, they are closely aligned with political power in Tehran or even Kirkuk.
In South Korea, the standoff between North Korea and the U.S. has weakened Seoul’s political power. In order to correct these political imbalances, Iraq and South Korea are being forced to choose among the lesser of multiple evils – at least from their perspective – to ensure their continued survival.
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